Morning Impact: 4/8/24
Equity Indices, Treasuries, FX, Metals, Energy, Ags, Softs and Crypto Futures
🌍 World Equity Indices Cash and US Index Futures
Asia passed a net-steady overnight session. Japan’s Nikkei (+0.91%) received some much needed stabilization within its correction. South Korea’s Kospi (+0.13%) also drew support against multi-week lows. The Hang Seng (+0.05%) continued to consolidate, while the Shanghai Comp (-0.72%) traded softer just off another attempt at extending it’s bounce. In Europe, both DAX (+0.77%) and FTSE (0.36%) dig themselves out of corrections. The sunrise North American calls were steady, with prices adding gains as the morning matures into the opening.
The mini DJIA futures hold steady around unchanged, indicating a potential shift towards recovery after recent downturns. This stability sets the stage for a resurgence, particularly after Friday's encouraging close. However, the journey to recapture lost ground remains challenging. It’s not out of the woods yet.
The mini S&P, similarly unchanged overnight, reflects a marketplace on the brink of a pivotal moment. The index's resilience in the face of adversity, notably after a tumultuous Friday, showcases the underlying strength. A critical area lies within the 5,200 to 5,250 range, where sustained buying could reignite the uptrend. Yet, the specter of retesting lows and potentially breaching them adds a layer of caution to the outlook.
The mini NASDAQ, maintaining unchanged, diverges slightly in narrative, having not embarked on a significant correction like its counterparts. Its stability within a two-month sideways range, especially holding the lows, signaled continuing consolidation rather than a correction in our view. This stability suggests an undercurrent of buying support, with a return to the mid-range hinting at more sideways action than immediate upward momentum. Yet, the potential for an uptrend resumption remains, contingent on the market's ability to hold lower levels without breaking down.
The mini Russell, displaying minimal change overnight, still commands attention for its resilience. Despite being the least impressive among the majors on Friday, its steadiness, even as it flirted with the week's lows, points towards an underlying strength and a market that, while cautious, is not yet ready to capitulate to bearish pressures. How it continues to hold against sliding treasury futures is intriguing.
💰 Treasury Futures
The 30-year bond has weakened significantly overnight, printing fresh lows around 116-15 at time of writing.
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